Very good, Oli. This harsh penalty for CDs is what we need and the 'recover-taking-over' rule looks good, too. I'm sure that, from now on, players will take more serously what not enough people say: a CD screws the game and it's a shame.
Also, I believe that the number of Open games will be somewhat reduced because of this.
Since you said everything is up for discussion, I'd like to comment a couple of aspects.
1) I'm afraid that penalty for a NMR stays uneffective.
I calculated that with the 1,432 phases I already played, I need to NMR 74 times before I fall in the "B" group. Even a single NMR can screw a game, so I think I shouldn't be authorized to miss so many phases only because I've been a good child during last 6 months. An upgrade in this part of the formula is still needed, IMHO.
2) Balancing CD with TakeOvers is pretty simple, and this is a good thing. But someone could be tempted to CD a hopeless game thinking he'll just TO the best game among the Open, to balance the loss. I propose that TO should be worth 0.5 CD.
First of all, DO NOT CD. Then, if ever, TO a couple of games to recover.