Uhmmm, I'd say no. This is how things went:

Player.......LIRA An01.........CROWN Sp02
Guaroz..............1500........................8500
gman................1600.........................5000
Podolsky............500.........................1600
tobi.....................500..........................5300
drano................1000.........................2000
D33....................-500........................1000
hiporox.............1019...........................500
Devo.................8500.........................5900
Amby...................N/A.........................5000
_______________________________
TOTAL Pcs... 14119.......................34800

You say speculation... well in An01 everybody bought Lire (excpt one), because the Board said it was the currency to buy! Italy's long life was sure! (You need the country to be long-lived to buy thousands, because you can sell only 500 per time. You discover it first!)
"My early buy of Lire, was a result of the low price of Lire. " Well no, because Crown was even cheaper at that time, but it was not the one to buy, looking at the map. You bought Lire because his long life was sure.

Don't forget we're all absolute beginners. You teached us how to buy when it's time to buy.

Infact, next phase was time to buy Crowns (because the Key Lepanto was revealed) and everybody bought it. If the green army holded in Trieste or moved to Vienna, nobody would have bought Crowns then, don't you think? Austria's death would have been a matter of hours. Who would have cared its price was cheap?
You teached us to not be that shy, when it's time to buy, so you see several 5000 or more.
Yes, you may say that price at only 0.22 helps buying thousands. True.
But it's also true that you don't bet everything you own on any Austria in Spring 1902. If there's a well-working Juggernaut, it's Austria the first to die, not Italy. So I believe that the country being Austria kept the traders from buying more Crowns. So did I. I spared 866$ that turn, good for 4000 more Crowns. If I could go back I'd buy 12,400 Crowns.

About Franc, well, in Spring 1904 it was the far cheapest currency: 0.32$, being the second cheapest Mark at 1.95: six times Crown! Result (-sold / +bought = variation):
Franc....-950..............0....= -0.09$
Mark.....-500.....+9700....= +0.92$
Why nobody bought Franc? Look at that map.

Next Fall instead, Franc was heavily bought. Because it was 9 cent cheaper than before? No because Italy supported Spa! Long life to France! In the worst case, you have time enough to sell a number of 500-Fr-sets high enough to have back the maney you invested.
It's always the game and the map who said what to buy. Different amounts are for different skills or different avaliable dollars (who didn't buy Francs in Fall 1904 was probably either sleeping or watching a different game-map).

We need bigger maps, Bourse with Classic is predictable unless you have all blind traders who can't see the map.

"Now, all the prices are basically similar without too much variance due to the game"
***Sorry, I don't get it, could you please rephrase it?

"So, there aren't any big moves anymore. There are no sweet deals ... 133% change."
***Yes, but not as much as you said. You can't compare prices of the first turns when there was
a Total Worth of 50-100 Kdollars around and the average cost of each piece was under 1$ (because of Lira and Crowns), with prices there are today when there's a TW of half a Millon Dollars around and the average cost of each piece is close to 2$ (and the average worth is 2.40$ with a peak of 2.63$ last turn)

I believe that what you call speculation is only good math. A trader decides whether to buy or sell mainly looking at what happens on the map. Then he wonders "How much should I buy/sell? Where's my pocket calculator? It says eight thousands? Ok."
It's math, not speculation.

Speculation is: "Hey guys, don't buy Lire, although cheap, because Devo will earn much more than you!"

Well... looks like nobody has a clue of what speculation is, here! :D

" 'My early buy of Lire, was a result of the low price of Lire. ' Well no, because Crown was even cheaper at that time, but it was not the one to buy, looking at the map. You bought Lire because his long life was sure."
- I think I know why I bought Lire better than you do. I bought it because it was cheap. Not necessarily the cheapest, but cheap. And I bought way more than I thought was safe to buy, which is one of my definitions of speculation. It was also much more than everyone else thought was safe to buy.

Regarding the purchase of Crowns. No one would have purchased anywhere near the amount that was purchased if the price had not been $0.22. If the price had been around $1 like the northern triple had been, Austria would have been ignored. Instead, people unloaded Pounds and Marks to buy Crowns, even though it appeared that England and Germany were going to be allies.

"Next Fall instead, Franc was heavily bought. Because it was 9 cent cheaper than before? No because Italy supported Spa! Long life to France!"
- Again, I think I know my reasons for buying francs better than you. It should be apparent that me and gman wanted to manipulate the value of the francs. We bought 20,000 of the 24500 purchased, and you bought 3500. Again, we bought so much on speculation, not knowing if France would last long enough to earn our investment back.

1 & 2) Of course you buy a cheap currency. But your definition of "cheap" is in relation with the 1$ starting value, that is a good parameter only for the first 2 turns. Instead I mean "cheap" in relation to what the map says.

1) Lira was the real (relative) cheapest, because it was undervalued in relation to what you could see on the map. Everybody bought Lire infact. Not cheaper Crowns.
"I bought way more than I thought was safe to buy," Well, now, having made experience, we know you thought wrong: even 12,000 Lire were a safe bought. Math, not speculation.

2) Yes, because Crown was both the "value cheapest" and the "relative cheapest". If the turn before Italy moved Tri>Vie and Ven>Tri, now Crown would have still been the "value cheapest" but not the "relative cheapest". It'd not be undervalued. Crowns would have been radioactive. Traders would have sold them. Crown = 0.01$ !
Now, having made experience, we know I was wrong. 12,000 Crowns were a safe bought.
8,500 was a shy order.

3) Yes you know your reasons. Why didn't you bought Franc the turn before then? You could manipulate it as well, the price was basically the same. Or do you mean that if Italy, instead of supporting hold Spain, was supporting the pink fleet TO Spain you and gman would have bought 20,000 Francs anyway, with France almost dead? Please don't joke. Each bourse action was tightly tied to what was happening on the map. What made the Franc so cheap was the Italian support to Spain that made clear that France had some turns to live again, so anybody who buys francs is rather sure to have his money back, or risk very little dollars.

But if you like to call speculation each time somebody buys more than 1,000 pieces, you're welcome. xD (I'm joking, forgive me)

Each bourse action was tightly tied to what was happening on the map.
The only speculation would have been not buying the Lira when it was both the "value cheapest" and the "relative cheapest". I was suggesting to NOT buying it for reasons that were OUTSIDE the map (speculation: you'd have earned more than anyone else. Actually: even sellig Lire you earned more than anyone else because they didn't speculate. The map was saying Lira was undervalued and they followed the map. They bought it. You lucky man.)

PS. "not knowing if France would last long enough to earn our investment back. "
You know France would have last at least 2 more turns, right?
Well you spent 2,300$ for 10,000 Frs and you already got 2,483$ back. Only for a "support hold" :)

A bigger more variable opening map like KW901 does bring with it the dilemma of currency names. Shrunken heads and bags of dung anyone?

Just call them China dollars, Turan dollars, Wagadu dollars etc.

@Guaroz,
1&2: Actually, I consider a currency cheap when it is priced significantly less than the other currencies, so a cheap currency in the beginning will be different from a cheap currency now.

1: Italy and Austria had the same number of SC's. The price difference was only $0.05. My take on the significant buy on lire was because I pushed hard for a lot of buying. I told several players I was buying lire big time, and I had a lot of cash, so I also had credibility. I said that it was going to have a big price move.
Regarding your comment that buying lire was a safe buy... You are describing hindsight and applying math to it to say it was safe. There was no way of knowing that Austria would not stab Italy the next turn, and hindsight does not turn a risky move into a safe move, just because we now know the outcome.

2. I never said that the traders ignore the board. Of course if there is no hope for a nation, buying will be severely limited. What I am saying is that the big buy on Crowns would not have happened if the price had been higher. For example, if it had been the price of Francs ($0.78), the big buy would likely have been for Roubles at $0.55.

3. I did consider it. But, I heard rumors of buying in pounds, and wanted to make a profit. I only had crowns, lire, plus 100 pounds, and couldn't raise enough cash to do both. I went with the Pounds. When Italy held France, I fully expected it, and it encouraged me, but it was not the deciding factor that caused me to make a big buy. I was planning on doing it anyway. (for the reason you stated in your PS)

I think we might be using a different definition of speculation.
The examples that you have given for speculation do not match my definition.

I am using this definition from Dictionary.com:

"5. engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, especially trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price.

I suspect you may be using one of the other definitions.

@Devonian: In autumn 1901, I had an army in Trieste, so Austria was by far in the weakest spot in that game at that time. That is why the crown, despite being cheaper, was considered overvalued and everyone sold 500 crowns.

Meanwhile on the other hand, Italy was in a good position to do well, and had the second cheapest currency, that is why all but one invest bought Lire.

I think, next round will become very interesting.
The currencies of the three strong countries Russia, Austria and Italy are very expensive at the moment, but no currency is overvalued or undervalued:

Russia, the strongest, has the most expensive currency
Austria has the cheapest currency cause there is a high risk of a stab from Russia and Italy (Russian units in Rum and Aeg).
Italy's currency is between both values

I don't think math would help you now. You have to guess if one value drops or raises. It depends on a few players.
In this phase of the game doing something wrong is most bad because you don't lose only a bit RNW but also some important VP. It's difficult to correct this mistakes when the Rouble for example raises $1 but you only have 1000 Roubles at the moment.

What will happen if one currency raises this turn. Nobody knows which currency will raise so everybody will bet on different currencies. If there's a raise, we'll only get a small one. And what happens then?
Two strong currencies stay "cheap". Everybody will sell his Roubles knowing the other cheaper strong currencies will raise more likely and they'll raise further. In this phase of Bourse it's not important how much $ you gain, but how much VP you gain. But when a currency get's cheaper you'll get more of this currency, more VP.

I bet, this turn will be similar to the last turn. Apart from the cheap Lire. I'm not sure.
But I'm sure, this turn will be a very decisive turn for the whole game of Bourse.

hey Kaner, I was wondering if there was still an open spot for me to start boursing :)

-------

Germany gobbled up as England fights on. Brest taken by Italy while Austria takes to the seas. The Rouble and the Crown rise while the Lire falls. In the Bourse, players Victory Points have reshuffled... see below.

-------

Autumn 1906 currency values:

Austrian Crowns: $2.98
English Pounds: $1.91
French Francs: $2.05
German Marks: $1.53
Italian Lire: $ 2.54
Russian Roubles: $3.55

The total amount of each currency sold/bought is:
Austrian Crowns: 1500 sold, 4624 bought = +3100 , up 0.34
English Pounds: 4000 sold, 0 bought = -4000 , down 0.40
French Francs: 2534 sold, 0 bought = -2500 , down 0.25
German Marks: 4000 sold, 0 bought = -4000, down 0.40
Italian Lire: 3499 sold, 0 bought = -3400 , down 0.34
Russian Roubles: 1500 sold, 5746 bought = +4200, up 0.42

Players' Net Worth & current Victory Points:
Devonian: $65169.37, vp = 1560.02
Diplomat33: $7859.74, vp = 84.48
L Podolski: $25290.27, vp = 691
Guaroz: $62950.46, vp = 1198.48
gman314: $62866.24, vp = 1380.18
tobi1: $48058, vp = 932
drano019: 324945, vp = 924
hiprox: $26832.35, vp = 645.1
Ambassador: $46524.5, vp = 1120
amisond: $25597.76, vp = 656.8
DoubleCaps: $16218.38, vp = 456.62
0ri0n: $15801.84, vp = 401.12

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Who holds what & what was bought and sold in Autumn 1906?

Devonian: Crowns 1401(-500), Pounds 2600(-500), Francs 8501(-500), Marks 0, Lire 10274(-499), Roubles 3520(+1620), US$ 9.38

Diplomat33: Crowns 0, Pounds 500, Francs 2000, Marks 500, Lire 181, Roubles 0, US$1580

L Podolski: Crowns 500, Pounds 0, Francs 500(-500), Marks 1000(-500), Lire 2700(-500), Roubles 4050(+1150), US$9.77

Guaroz: Crowns 7003(-500), Pounds 1700(-500), Francs 2000(-500), Marks 3002(-500), Lire 0, Roubles 4702(-500), US$13449.36

gman314: Crowns 3000(+500), Pounds 4503(-500), Francs 8502(-499), Marks 1001(-500), Lire 4000(-500), Roubles 4500(+1499), US$229.88

tobi1: Crowns 4000(-500), Pounds 400(-500), Francs 0, Marks 1700(-500), Lire 2000(-500), Roubles 3500(-500), US$13269

drano019: Crowns 1000, Pounds 3000, Francs 0, Marks 650, Lire 200, Roubles 6950, US$60

hiprox: Crowns 4089(+860), Pounds 1650(-500), Francs 0(-35), Marks 3735(-500), Lire 1716, Roubles 400, US$2.44

Amby: Crowns 7000(+1500), Pounds 0, Francs 0, Marks 5000(-500), Lire 2000(-500), Roubles 3000(-500), US$2284.5

amisond: Crowns 0, Pounds 6000(-500), Francs 0, Marks 0, Lire 2500(-500), Roubles 2168(+800), US$91.36

DoubleCaps: Crowns 672, Pounds 0(-500), Francs 0, Marks 258(-500), Lire 1000, Roubles 3177(+677), US$2.73

0ri0n: Crowns 2764(+1764), Pounds 500(-500), Francs 500(-500), Marks 500(-500), Lire 500(-500), Roubles 0, US$0.12

----

Please welcome our newest trader 0ri0n.

I'll also PM everyone soon as to their current stocks in holding.

Thanks!

----

a couple of typos:

tobi1: Crowns 4600(-500), Pounds 500(-500), Francs 0, Marks 1700(-500), Lire 2000(-500), Roubles 3500(-500), US$13289

0ri0n: Crowns 2764(+1764), Pounds 500(-500), Francs 500(-500), Marks 500(-500), Lire 500(-500), Roubles 1000, US$0.12

Kaner- how did the crown go up 34 cents when the change was only +3100? wouldn't it be up 31 cents?

haha :-) well spotted. another typo.
Austrian Crowns: 1500 sold, 4624 bought = +3100 , up 0.31
last season: $2.67 + 0.31
this season: $2.98

Guaroz's and Tobi's hoarde of cash makes the stats deceiving. They do not contribute to his victory points while they are in $'s. But once he and Tobi spend them, Guaroz will most likely be in the lead in net worth and victory points.

Yes, that was the plan. But it miserably failed.
Unluckily, both Crown and Rouble rose, so I'd better have bought them last turn, and not sold.
Lira dropped, but not enough. 13.000 $ are not enough to buy the liras you got, 10,000 or so.
Then, Lira is still untouchable.

I (or we) lost a lot of money this turn.

what are the stats Guaroz? How much cash did investors loose/gain?

Yeah, I noticed the same thing. It could have been better, but you haven't lost any real ground. You're going to gain a lot this year, assuming you don't hold off another year.

@kaner you mean RNW?

yes - sorry.

ok, but I'm busy atm. Gimme some hours...

Well, I don't think RNW counts that much at this phase of the game. Net Worth doesn't count at all at the moment. Devo e.g. won't sell all his 10000 Lire even if it's value raises to 1 billion dollar.
At moment VP and available money is most important. (... and you have to know, when a value don't drops anymore but raises ...)

For the ones who love statistics. Here is a copy from my spreadsheet:

The RNW-rankings (compared with spring and autumn 1906)

player………RNW………..change(autumn06)……….change(spring06)
Devo….........14,87…..........-1,44(.=.)……..................….-0,37(+1)
Guaroz…......14,37……......+0,1(+1)……........................-0,35(+1)
gman314…..14,35……......-0,98(-1)…............................-0,95(-2)
tobi1…..........10,97…..........+0,07(.=.)….....................….+0,13(.=.)
Amby….........10,62……......-0,06(.=.).................……….-0,18(.=.)
drano019…...7,98…...........+0,22(.=.)……......................-0,09(.=.)
hiprox……….6,12…......….-0,44(.=.)………...................-0,75(.=.)
amisond…….5,84…….......-0,68(.=.)…..................…….-0,89(.=.)
L Pod..........…5,77…….......-0,03(.=.)………...................+0,24(.=.)
DoCa……......3,7…….........+0,17(.=.)……..............……+0,18(.=.)
0ri0n…............3,61……..........X……..................................X
Diplomat33…1,79……......-0,55(-1)………....................-0,58(-1)


According to the RNW selling everything wasn't that miserable …

Ouch, you posted it while I started typing...
Small differences I can't explain... here it is:...

"I lost a lot of money this turn."
Well actually, I should have said something like: "I failed to earn a treasure" or "I've wasted the chance to take the lead".

RNW, Fall 1906

..1...Devonian................14,83%........(-0,92%)
..2...Guaroz....................14,33%.......(+0,55%)
..3...gman314................14,31%........(-0,50%)
..4...tobi1........................10,94%.......(+0,41%)
..5...Ambassador...........10,59%......(+0,28%)
..6...drano019..................7,95%.......(+0,47%)
..7...hiporox......................6,11%........(-0,23%)
..8...amisond....................5,83%.......(-0,47%)
..9...L.Podolsky................5,76%......(+0,15%)
10...Double Capitals.......3,69%......(+0,29%)
11...0ri0n..........................3,60%.......(+0,17%)
12...Diplomat33...............2,06%......(-0,20%.)
Totals............................100,00%.........(0,00%)

TNW dropped from 443,893 to 439,323 (-4.570)
Cash rose from 4.527,58$ to 20.982,54$ (+16.454,96$)

Interesting drano 2nd best of the turn, uh?

tobi, is the sum of your RNWs = 100?
And the sum of the relative differences = 0?
I don't think so...

Guaroz, It's interesting that, at first look, it appeared like you lost value. But the reality is that you gained, on a relative basis more than anyone else.

Just a thought: are players in the Boursed game allowed to draw?

I don't see it specifically addressed in the rules, but I assumed that it was allowed. I also assumed that victory points were distributed according to the SC's held at the time of the draw. I would like this confirmed though.

This might bring up another question: If country "A" enters opponent "B" SC in the spring, is it a victory point for A or B if a draw is called.